improve much more with multiple upgrades for the same amount of money?"Packers Free Agency 2019The Packers absolutely should not sign free agent RB Le’Veon Bell in 2019Why get a slight upgrade at one position when you can improve much more with multiple upgrades for the same amount of money?CSTShareTweetShareShareThe Packers absolutely should not sign free agent RB Le’Veon Bell in 2019The Green Bay Packers continue to see speculation about the team signing free agent running back Le’Veon Bell Youth Rashan Gary Jersey , formerly of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Most recently, beat writer Pete Dougherty said that Bell should be one of the team’s targets in free agency.Bell sat out the 2018 season because of his demands for a new contract, and he will be a free agent again in 2019. Is he one of the best running backs in the NFL? Yes. Would he make a team better? Almost certainly. But how much would he really improve a team? And would that improvement match up with the amount of money it would cost to get him in the door? Those are the critical questions when looking at signing him, and the answer is simple: he’s not worth the money.ContractBell is on the record saying he wants to be paid like a top wide receiver. He refused to play a second straight year on the franchise tag in 2018, a contract that would have paid him $14.544 million, all of it fully guaranteed.Currently, the biggest long-term contract for a running back belongs to Todd Gurley, who signed an extension before the 2018 season. That deal takes him through 2024, and it went down as a four-year, $57.5 million extension. That equates to $14.375M per year, just under Bell’s tag value. Presumably, Bell would want more in annual compensation than Gurley received, so we’re looking at something around $15M per year for Bell.In addition, he would almost certainly want a four-year deal at minimum, which brings the total to $60M. Let’s say he gets around $20M in a signing bonus; if for some reason he disappointed massively and the Packers needed to move on after two years, they would take a $10M dead hit on their salary cap in 2021.Marginal ContributionsAs with any signing, it’s not the total production a player brings that determines whether he’s worth his contract to that team. Any team in a salary cap league must evaluate how best to spend its money, prioritizing return on investment. Therefore, given the Packers’ success with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams the past two years, the marginal upgrade Bell would likely provide at running back is not remotely worth the $15M/year investment.Think about it: if you’re Brian Gutekunst, you can get some potential upgrade to the running back position for that amount of money Darnell Savage Green Bay Packers Jersey , or you can use that $15M to upgrade multiple other positions. We’ll examine some better uses of that money shortly; first, let’s examine the upgrade that Bell would provide over Jones and Williams.Upgrade at Running Back?Zach Kruse of Packers Wire has been beating this drum for a while now. He did it last season, when Bell was reportedly seeking a trade, by looking at the Packers’ three running backs in 2017: Jones, Williams, and Ty Montgomery. Kruse refenced a tweet by NFL analyst Marcus Mosher, which observed that that trio had the exact same yards per touch average (when combining their numbers) as Bell did that year:On Monday, he did it again by comparing the two second-year Packers in 2018 to that 2017 season from Bell:Hey, look at that! Jones and Williams actually performed better on a per-touch basis in 2018 than Bell did in his most recent season. Their yards per carry was almost seven-tenths of a yard higher than Bell’s, thanks in large part to Aaron Jones’ stellar 5.5 mark, which led the NFL. Football Outsiders’ DVOA stat tells a similar story — the Packers’ rushing attack ranked third in that per-play efficiency stat in both 2017 (+10.6%) and in 2018 (+12.4%), while the 2017 Steelers were sixth with a much less-impressive +3.0% value.Now let’s look a bit closer at the individual players’ advanced numbers, both DVOA and DYAR (which is the total production corollary to DVOA). Note that DYAR fluctuates based on usage, so the fact that the Packers ran the ball fewer than any other team in the NFL will depress their running backs’ rushing DYAR numbers.2018 Jones: 16.9% rushing DVOA, 145 rushing DYAR; 2.2% receiving DVOA, 33 receiving DYAR2018 Williams: 1.7% rushing DVOA, 51 rushing DYAR; -9.3% receiving DVOA, 11 receiving DYAR2018 Total: 196 rushing DYAR, 44 receiving DYAR, 240 total DYAR2017 Bell: 7.9% rushing DVOA, 214 rushing DYAR; 2.5% receiving DVOA Kevin King Jersey , 101 receiving DYAR; 315 total DYARNow, a 75 DYAR difference is notable, but that comes on 99 fewer touches than Bell had. Also note that the biggest difference comes in receiving production. How about addinga proven receiving back like Tevin Coleman for around $5M per year? That number is Spotrac’s estimate of his market value, and signing him could give the Packers tons of flexibility in the backfield, allowing them to roll out a three-headed monster to play the matchups and saving the team $10M annually compared to signing Bell. As an added bonus here: Coleman and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur are plenty familiar with one another, since they were together for two years with the Falcons.Plus, when looking at per-play efficiency, Jones was better in ‘18 — admittedly on a smaller sample size — than Bell was the year before. Can we find improvements of 75 DYAR for cheaper than $15M? Most definitely, and we’ll do so shortly.Steelers’ RBsLet’s take the Bell analysis even farther and look at the dropoff (or lack thereof) from Bell to the Steelers’ 2018 running backs, James Conner and Jaylen Samuels. There is a common refrain among a certain sect of NFL analysts, that running backs are fungible assets, and that is borne out by several situations in 2018. Take the Los Angeles Rams, for example. When Todd Gurley was injured late in the season, they plucked C.J. Anderson off the street and had essentially no drop in production from the position. The dropoff from Bell to the tandem of Conner and Samuels — a 2017 third-round draft pick and a 2018 fifth-rounder, respectively — was also minimal:Conner/Samuels271 carries, 1,229 yards (4.53 YPC), 12 TDs; 81 receptions, 696 yards (8.59 YPR), 4 TDsTotal yards per touch: 5.46The Steelers got better per-carry averages (4.53 to 4.02) and better per-reception averages (8.59 to 7.71) with Conner and Samuels in 2018 than Bell had in 2017, demonstrating that they were in all likelihood better off with Bell refusing to play. The advanced stats are a little different Darnell Savage Jersey 2019 , but they make the two options seem nicely comparable, regardless of whether you’re looking at per-play efficiency (DVOA) or total cumulative production (DYAR):2018 Conner: 2.4% rushing DVOA, 100 rushing DYAR; 15.2% receiving DVOA, 112 receiving DYAR2018 Samuels: -1.2% DVOA, 17 rushing DYAR; 36.4% receiving DVOA, 79 receiving DYAR2018 Total: 117 rushing, 191 receiving (308 total DYAR)2017 Bell: 7.9% rushing DVOA, 214 rushing DYAR; 2.5% receiving DVOA, 101 receiving DYAR; 315 total DYARThat’s almost the exact same total production from the Steelers’ two running backs in 2018 as Bell had the year before, with those backs providing much more as receivers — which is typically one of the hallmarks of the arguments in Bell’s favor.Other InvestmentsIt’s too early to tell exactly who will be available on the free agent market this season, but it’s a good bet that a team could get a much better bang for their buck at other positions.Take slot receiver, for example. In 2018, Randall Cobb was bad — he had had negative-45 DYAR on 61 targets. Now, I don’t mean to throw more gasoline on the Cole Beasley fire that has been raging recently, but he would have been a huge upgrade over Cobb last season. Beasley had a round 100 DYAR on 87 targets, and adjusting that total down for the difference in targets puts him at an even 70. Swapping him in for Cobb would represent a net gain of 115 DYAR, and he could come with a price tag around $5 million/year. The difference in production between Bell and the Packers’ current running backs is more than accounted for at a third of the price.This is just an example, of course, and it relies on projecting DYAR values from prior seasons forward. However, it does help illustrate just see how small of an upgrade Bell would likely provide over the Packers’ runners.It’s not as easy to quantify the impact of adding an offensive lineman or a pass-rusher, since there is no DYAR or DVOA for those positions Color Rush Darnell Savage Jersey , but those spots would almost assuredly provide a better bang for the buck than signing Bell. Even the top free agent guards will likely max out around $8 million per year. How about using $15 million to try to sign a pass-rusher like Dee Ford instead? That number would put him right around the top ten highest-paid edge rushers, a good spot for him. Is there any argument that the marginal upgrade from Jones/Williams to Bell would be greater than going from Clay Matthews/Reggie Gilbert to Ford? Going after a second-tier player like Dante Fowler or Preston Smith could be an excellent alternative as well, and they would take up less cap space.Gutekunst could alternately use this cap space on a safety. Landon Collins ($9.3M/year market value, per Spotrac) or Earl Thomas (likely to get around the same) would provide instant playmaking ability in the Packers’ secondary. Tyrann Mathieu could do the same if he sees the Packers as an immediate contender. If you’re intent on signing a free agent running back, pair Tevin Coleman with one of these safeties to upgrade two positions for the price of one.There are numerous ways that the Packers could use the money that Le’Veon Bell would demand to improve their team. It’s easy to imagine any number of scenarios which would cost the same or less than Bell and should lead to a much bigger marginal impact than what Bell would provide on his own. In the NFL, it’s all about bang for the buck. Can the new Packers still provide that in the back half of their four-year contracts?"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections The APC PodcastPackers Film RoomFantasy Football AdviceCDTShareTweetShareShareCheese Curds, 3/18: Will Packers get their money’s worth from the new free agents?Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY SportsSix days later, the intensity of the excitement that Green Bay Packers fans are feeling has calmed down somewhat. Still, we’ve gone from a full-fledged boil to a steady simmer, as the team’s four free agent additions continue to provide reasons to be optimistic for a turnaround in 2019, particularly on defense.As we’ve mentioned before, last Tuesday was a first in Packers history with so many big-name signings coming so quickly. Thursday was the same, as all four players were in the building to sign their contracts and introduce themselves to the media. Now that the weekend has passed and we’re into week two of free agency, we are left with anticipation leading up to the 2019 NFL Draft, knowing that the Packers are probably finished making their big free agent moves for the spring.The question now becomes how the new Packers will work into the roster and — more importantly — if they will indeed provide the impact that the team expects of them. The players’ contract structures relative to the salary cap are well-documented, as the Packers did backload a significant amount of cap money into the later years of these deals. If healthy, these players should have no difficulty justifying their cap hits in year one; the big question is whether they will do so in years three and four, when The Packers, like every NFL team, continue to bank on the cap increasing steadily. In 2021, when the biggest cap jump will take place for all of these deals Cheap Darnell Savage Jersey , the league will be negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement, potentially leading to another massive jump like it saw in 2011. If so, these contract structures will help the team stay competitive in the meantime while not hurting too much in later years.But most importantly, if these four players prove to be impact players throughout all four years of their deals, the cap hits will be nothing to worry about.Packers won't be splurging next year | Packersnews.comDon't expect a similar free agent investment in 2020 -- the Packers will probably need to re-sign a few key players like Mike Daniels and/or Blake Martinez, and they already have a significant cap investment already up and down the roster. The key now is to hit on the next couple of draft classes and hope that this year's signings pan out.Billy Turner feels wanted in Green Bay | Packers.comTurner, a Minnesota native, saw his dad play for both the Packers and Vikings, so he has seen both sides of the rivalry. For now, though, he's focused on his fit in Green Bay, where his athleticism makes him a good fit for a zone-blocking system.The Smiths: The Packers' new $118 million pass-rushing combination - ESPNZa'Darius and Preston Smith almost played together at Mississippi State after Za'Darius took a visit there while at a nearby junior college. Now they finally get to bookend each other in Green Bay.This stat sums up Packers’ pass-rushing improvement in free agency | Packers WireMeanwhile, the two players had over 110 total quarterback pressures last year, beating the entire Packers' edge group by 25.NFL Draft 2019: DE Montez Sweat has pre-existing heart condition | SI.comOne other potential Packers pass-rushing target with the 12th overall pick is Sweat, whose minor heart condition showed up on Combine medical exams. However, he and his agents say it's "not news," and the fact that he was allowed to participate fully at the Combine suggests that there should be no issue there moving forward.Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill under investigation for alleged battery of juvenile - SBNation.comThis is the second domestic violence-related issue that Hill has faced in the past several years.Moose is mistaken for burglar after crashing into Colorado home | Daily Mail OnlineThis is the second moose-related incident in Colorado in recent days; a few days ago, a library had to be shut down because a moose decided to camp out near the front door.