In Washington Will Center On Curl Routes This year I had the chance to ask Football Outsiders a few questions on behalf of Hogs Haven. Football Outsiders provides in depth stats that you can’t find anywhere else. There signature metric is DVOA which not only takes into account statistics but it measures efficiency and accounts for circumstance. They don’t just aim to through out numbers though their goal is to provide objective writing and analysis backed by their research to improve and change that way football is written about. Their work has been featured in Sports Illustrated Shawn Lauvao Jersey , ESPN, SB Nation, CBS Sports, and Bleacher Report.You can check out all of their products, and the 2018 Almanac here.Here is today’s question and answer:Hogs Haven: Kirk Cousins is gone and Alex Smith is in DC what does the Redskins offense and Smith specifically have to do to replicate Smith’s career best year and succeed overall?Football Outsiders: Smith got some press for throwing more deep passes in 2017, but that was somewhat overblown. In 2016, he finished next to last among qualifying quarterbacks with an average depth of target of 6.9 yards. In 2017, that average climbed to 8.0 yards, but was still just 27th. (Kirk Cousins ranked ninth in 2016 and 24th in 2017, so Smith’s style should be a bit of a shift for Washington fans.) According to Sports Info Solutions’ charting, Smith’s most common throw last year was on curl routes -- he had twice as many throws on curls as on any other type of route. After that, most of his value came on go/fly, deep cross, and post routes -- he went 24-for-43 on those routes (56 percent completion rate) for 775 yards, six touchdowns, and only one interception. A 44th throw resulted in 20 yards on a DPI. That’s only about three of those passes per game, but he usually made them count. His worst pattern, by far, was the out route, where he went 25-of-43 for 194 yards (just 4.5 yards per pass!) with no touchdowns. We tend to think that deep balls are a measure of arm strength, but really it’s those sideline routes -- where the ball has to travel a long ways and hit a tight window without giving the defense time to react -- where arm strength is most critical, and that’s where Smith was at his worst last year. The TL;DR version of all this: Washington needs to hit on those curl routes that are a staple of Smith’s game; they need to take advantage of limited opportunities for big plays down the field, especially on throws down the middle; and they must avoid those sideline routes, where Smith’s weak arm can be exposed.Thanks to Vincent Verhei who you can follow on twitter @FO_VVerhei 鈥? I found the above numbers fascinating regarding Smith’s route success. While I don’t necessarily agree he has a ‘weak’ arm its obvious Alex is not a gunslinger nor a QB who can deliver 60 yard bombs. I do think its important for the offense to be adjusted to what he is comfortable with which includes those curls/comeback routes as well as the deep post. And if the above numbers are any indication I hope he stays away from delivering those out routes!You can pick up a copy of Football Outsiders 2018 Almanac here Thursday Night Game:Houston Texans:- This figures to be a lower scoring affair tonight so if you have a decent secondary QB play sitting DeShaun Watson might not be a bad call. The Dolphins corners are really good Dexter Manley Jersey , but that shouldn’t stop you from using DeAndre Hopkins this week. Hopkins may not have the upside he usually does, but he should still be a quality option. Will Fuller is a bit less certain of a play this week and ideally you will have other options to use instead. The Texans play of the night though is RB Lamar Miller. The Dolphins have been pretty bad versus the run this season, and Miller is a home favorite running back. He has a good chance for over 100 yards rushing and at least one rushing TD.Miami Dolphins:- There is not much to like with the Dolphins this week as they are a banged up team on road, playing on the short week. Miami’s offense is questionable to begin with and now they are without two of their top receivers in Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson out tonight. Jakeem Grant and Danny Amendola have both been okay, but it’s tough to count on these players tonight. Brock Osweiler hasn’t been as bad as people thought, but this is not a great spot for him facing a Texans defense with some elite pass rushers. The one interesting Dolphins play is Kenyan Drake. He is still splitting some work with Frank Gore, but Drake is getting most of the passing game work. The Dolphins are likely to be behind tonight meaning Drake should be on the field more. There has even been some talk given the injuries at WR that Drake could run some routes out wide this week. In a PPR format Drake is very much in play and could have a sneaky big game.Quarterbacks:Start ‘em:Andy Daltonalton burned fantasy owners last week in a pretty good spot, but he’s worth firing up in your line-ups again. The Buccaneers have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and Cincy should look to get their offense on track this week through the air.Jameis Winston:-Winston is almost a lock for 300 plus passing yards this week and should have a couple passing TDs. The Buccaneers can’t run the football effectively and are having tremendous success through the air. Winston has a safe floor due to his volume and his ceiling is really high as well. Mitch Trubisky:-Trubisky had a bad real life game last week, but another great fantasy week. He’s had over 300 yards passing and at least 2 passing TDs each of the last three weeks. In addition he’s helped himself on the ground rushing for 180 yards and 1 TD in that time frame. The Bears might not need to throw as much this week so the ceiling might not be as high, but I’d still expect a solid fantasy game from Trubisky. Sit ‘em:Cam Newton:-Now Newton is a must play most weeks, and this week if you have no other options you still keep him in this week. If you can pivot though, this is a week to sit Newton against a really good Ravens defense. Baltimore has slowed down a number of top QBs this year, so it’s likely Newton’s ceiling this week will be capped. Baker Mayfield:-Mayfield is playing in one of the highest scoring games this week, but he’s hit a bit of a rookie wall of late. Some of it has to do with the lack of weapons on the Browns, and those that are on the field have had a number of key drops. The Steelers defense does have plenty of weak points, but this doesn’t feel like a big week for Mayfield. He probably won’t kill your fantasy line-ups, but he probably won’t put up big points either. C.J. Beathard:-A couple weeks ago when these two teams met Beathard had a strong fantasy game throwing for almost 350 yards and 2 TDs. While it’s tempting to go back to Beathard this week for a streaming option, it’s likely he won’t come close to matching that output this game. The 49ers are starting to find more success on the ground and the Cardinals can’t stop the run. If San Francisco gets ahead expect them to feature their backs and not give Beathard a lot of opportunities. Eli Manning/Alex Smith:-This figures to be a slow game with only moderate scoring. Eli Manning has great weapons, but he’s playing poorly and not get any help from his OL. He’s facing a Redskins defense that has shut down everyone not named Drew Brees. Alex Smith has struggled to start the year and isn’t likely to breakout of that slump this week. The Giants defense is getting weaker with their recent trades, but Smith probably won’t need to throw alot this week. Even if Smith does have a good real life football game, he’s unlikely to have a strong fantasy football week. Running backs:Start ‘em:Adrian Petersoneterson continues to play well this season and the Giants just traded away their best run stuffer. Right now it’s clear the Redskins offense runs through Peterson, so he should get touches early and often this week. If the Redskins can get the lead, Peterson will continue to be featured throughout the game. He doesn’t get much passing game work so in full point PPR he’s not a great option, but he’s a solid fill in if you have guys on byes.Kerryon Johnson:-Johnson is coming off a huge week and could be in line for another strong game versus the Seahawks. The Lions may finally have some balance to their offense and should continue to feature Johnson more and more. Detroit still splits work and gives Blount goal line carries Cole Holcomb Washington Redskins Jersey , but Johnson should have enough usage to have a good week.Phillip Lindsay:-Lindsay has been outplaying fellow rookie 3rd rd pick Royce Freeman and it’s possible that Freeman doesn’t play this week. Lindsay has shown explosiveness as both a runner and a receiver and should get a lot of work versus a Chiefs defense that has struggled to cover running backs.Sit ‘em:Doug Martin:-With Marshawn Lynch out a lot of people will want to play Martin, but that looks like fools gold at this point. Martin hasn’t shown much this year, and the Raiders are a team that figures to be down this game. Martin probably won’t be on the field for most of the passing work, making him likely to disappoint this week (also he will likely disappoint when he is on the field).Latavius Murray:-Murray has had back-to-back good games filling in for Dalvin Cook, but this week fantasy owners should pivot away. The Saints aren’t allowing any running backs to succeed and this likely will be a shootout type game. Murray has very limited passing game involvement so he’s likely to have few touches this week. Maybe he vultures 2 TDs, but outside of that he’s unlikely to have a strong fantasy day.Nick Chubb:-Chubb had a solid first week as the Browns top running back last week, but he faces a tough Steelers run defense in what could be a higher scoring game. Chubb isn’t highly involved in the passing game, so he could be game scripted out pretty early in this game.Wide Receivers:Start ‘em:DeSean Jackson, Tyler Boyd, Chris Godwin:-Obviously A.J. Green and Mike Evans are the top plays in this game, but the secondary plays are worth your time as well. This game has real shootout potential so expect 650-800 total passing yards in this game and the potential for 5-8 combined passing TDs. Some of that should get filtered to these three players making them all viable options. T.Y. Hilton:-Hilton only had 4 catches last week, but two went for TDs. With the Colts facing off versus a bad Raiders secondary, Hilton could be in line for a big week as Indy looks to get back into the playoff picture for the AFC South. Jordy Nelson:-With no Amari Cooper, Nelson takes over as the Raiders top receiver. He was getting good usage prior to the trade so expect him to see 10+ targets this week. Nelson has a decent ceiling versus a Colts defense that limits big plays, but still has some holes in their secondary.Anthony Miller:-If you are looking for an under the radar guy look at Bears rookie Anthony Miller. Miller missed a couple of weeks with injury, but bounced back with a solid week against the Patriots. The Jets have been killed by slot receivers this year, which should give Miller a pretty nice outlook.Sit ‘em:Alshon Jeffery:-Jeffery has had a good year so far and is playing his best football in the past couple of seasons, now though he faces a Jaguars corner group that is still among the best in the league. They aren’t as shutdown as they were a year ago, but Jacksonville’s corners still are a strong group. Jeffery’s upside is limited this week and it is a good week to avoid him.Devin Funchess:-Funchess has had a good start to the year and has been Cam Newton’s best weapon outside of Christian McCaffrey. This week though is not a good match-up as the Ravens have really slowed down most receivers they faced this year. Funchess will likely get a few catches, but his chances for anything close to 100 yards is pretty low. Sterling Shepard:-Shepard is coming off a huge breakout game, but he faces a tough Redskins secondary this week. Shepard is likely to disappoint this week in a game that probably won’t be high scoring. He may max out somewhere in the 5 catch 40-55 yards type of week.