Yesterday we used aggregate data from multiple quarterbacks around the league to predict Derek Carr’s 2019 statistical output. Today we look at how those projected numbers translate to the Raiders..."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Raiders StoriesScheduleRosterStatsYahoo Raiders NewsYahoo Raiders Team PageYahoo Raiders ReportYahoo Raiders Depth ChartYahoo Raiders TransactionsYahoo Raiders PhotosOdds About Masthead Community Guidelines StubHub ✕Using projected Derek Carr numbers to predict Raiders 2019 win totalNew Tyrell Williams Jersey ,74commentsPDTShareTweetShareShareUsing projected Derek Carr numbers to predict Raiders 2019 win totalCary Edmondson-USA TODAY SportsYesterday we used aggregate data from multiple quarterbacks around the league to predict Derek Carr’s 2019 statistical output. Today we look at how those projected numbers translate to the Raiders win totals.Using quarterback statistics from year 5 to year 6 and the second season playing in the same offensive system, some trends were identified. The percentage difference in quarterback stats from one season to the next were used to generate a low prediction, middle prediction, and high prediction for Derek Carr’s statistical output in 2019. Read the full study here.Low prediction: Passer rating 85.4, Adjusted net yards per attempt 5.77, completion percentage 69.2%, touchdowns 18, and yards 4151.Middle prediction: Passer rating 97, ANY/A 6.75, completion percentage 70.5% Trent Brown Jersey , touchdowns 22, and yards 4324.High prediction: Passer rating 108.6, ANY/A 7.72, completion percentage 71.8%, touchdowns 25, and yards 4497.This conversation is good and well, but how does it translate to wins on the field? Quarterback statistics can be volatile and aren’t always the best marker for predicting wins vs losses considering it ignores the other side of the football entirely. However there is a correlation between quarterback production and wins more so than any other single position on the football field.Looking back at the past 3 seasons there are some takeaways as far as passing statistics that point to what the Raiders record will look like pending the production from the Quarterback position.Automatic thresholdsto a winning record.That being said in most categories there is a steady positive progression as stats improve so do wins. Touchdowns is one category where this isn’t completely true considering between 5 and 8 wins quarterbacks threw between 21 and 23 touchdown passes on average. Yards is another statistic that shows confusing correlation to wins. Between 6 and 11 wins quarterbacks threw between 3700 and 3900 yards, essentially no difference.The statistics in this study that served to best predict win totals were ANY/A, passer rating, and completion percentage in that order. Using only those statistics and attempting to make a prediction for the Raiders record in 2019 lets go back to the 2019 low Lamarcus Joyner Jersey , medium and high predictions for Derek Carr’s 2019.If Derek Carr hits the low prediction numbers, according to data taken from the last 3 seasons, the Raiders should win 7 gamesIf Carr hits the medium prediction numbers the Raiders should win 9 games.If Carr hits the high prediction numbers the Raiders should win 11 games.It’s important to note these numbers have been aggregated from objective sources and NFL stats only. There is no opinion in this study and the bias only comes from the timeframe in which these stats were taken. The middle prediction, likely the safest one, suggest the Raiders could be in the wildcard hunt late in the season and at least register a winning season in 2019. Notes:When compared to the 43 quarterbacks who started at least 8 games in a season over the past 3 years, Derek Carr ranked:17th in composite statistical standings14th in total QB wins24th in QB wins per season playedThese numbers are very middle of the road figures for the Raiders franchise QB. If Carr isn’t able to make a jump in his second season under Gruden then the Raiders would be smart to see if they can upgrade the position. While Carr certainly has not been terrible, he also hasn’t been great except for arguably one season. In 2016 Carr’s composite statistics ranked 25th out of 85 qualifying quarterbacks in the past 3 years and 8th best that season. Carr needs to improve immensely to solidify his status as the unquestioned starter. This truly is a make or break year for him. When Raiders cornerback Gareon Conley was strapped to a gurney and carted off the field during last Monday night’s win over the Broncos, the prevailing thought was about Conley’s long-term health and not his availability for Oakland’s Week Two game against the Chiefs.Positive reports about Conley’s condition started to come in after the game and good news continued as the week played out. That good news included Conley’s limited participation in practice on Wednesday and Thursday brought more of the same.Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther said at his Thursday press conference that Conley is “good to go” for the matchup with Kansas City.That’s great news given how scary it looked when Conley was hit in the head by safety Johnathan Abram‘s leg as they tried to tackle Broncos running back Royce Freeman. It’s doubly good news for the Raiders as they’ll be without Abram after he suffered a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his shoulder in Week One.